Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Giants Miss Out On Lester: What Is Next?

San Francisco Giants, the defending World Champs, went into the offseason with a mission to fill the position vacancies and then some. Pablo Sandoval was priority number one, and failed to come back to San Francisco. The Giants then turned their focus to what they do best: their pitching. On the market, there is Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, and others. Giants did the unthinkable and went all out on Jon Lester. Giants hung in the discussion until the decision was made, when Lester announced a 6 year/$155 million dollar deal with the Chicago Cubs. Giants did what they could and were going to be the only team who offered 7 years and the highest guaranteed money. Giants were not bluffing in their attempt to sign Lester, who they had a very good chance of signing. Ultimately, Lester appreciated what the Giants had to offer and was impressed, but Lester's heart didn't have room to include the Giants. Lester still has a spot for Theo Epstein, who left Boston years ago to join the front office for the Chicago Cubs. Jon decided to reconnect and go with comfort over choosing the money. The offseason is far from over for the Giants, who can definitely step back into the race for other free agents still on the market, or look to make some trades. Giants still have holes to fill as third base, left field, and another starting pitcher remain open. Where do the Giants go from here? Here are some free agent ideas and trade scenarios the Giants could look to approach here this week at the Winter Baseball Meetings and the rest of the offseason.

Sign Ervin Santana: Santana finds himself in the same position as last season, in the free agent market. When the Braves lost Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen both to season ending arm injuries during Spring Training, they turned to Ervin Santana who was still looking for a team to sign with. Santana was looking for a multiple year deal which teams were ignoring to meet, so Santana settled for a one year deal. Once again, Santana is looking for a multi-year deal and has certainly earned the consideration. His last two seasons have been a success, and he made a case in 2014 with the Braves posting these numbers: 196 IP 14-10 3.95 ERA 179 K's. While Santana is turning 32, he is still in the prime of his career, and heading into possibly the last large contract of his career. The National League suits Santana the best at this point of his career, and what a better place to finish a career in a San Francisco Giants uniform. A team coming off three World Series Championships in the last five seasons, with a coaching staff that has done a phenomenal job, Dave Righetti would love to coach a talent like Ervin Santana. Playing at a pitcher's park like AT&T park, as Santana ages, his numbers should still continue to stay inflated. Giants missed out on Lester, but it is not the end. Prediction: 4 Years/$58 Million Deal

Sign James Shields: While Scherzer and Shields still loom on the market, these are still two aces who are looking to get signed. Shields came off a season where he helped lead the Royals into the playoffs, what he was brought in there all along to do. Shields is an innings eater who continues year-after-year to throw over 210 innings per season. The guy is reliable to go out there almost every game and throw seven innings. That is what you want in a pitcher and the guy at the top of the rotation. Shields has been around the game for awhile now, and is looking for his last big contract just like Ervin Santana and others are. Shields could make a nice transition to the National League to keep his numbers inflated to finish out his career. Shields had tough bouts with having to go against David Price, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and other aces in baseball and always seemed to come up empty-handed. It might be time for Shields to step back from being the main guy, and slide into the 2 or 3 slot in the rotation. The pressure will be off his shoulders while allowing someone else to guide the rotation. Shields still has game and he isn't on the decline. Just his time as a number 1 starter soon seem to be over where his best value should come from falling back in rotation. Shields is going to get paid good money regardless where he finds himself in a rotation, but pitching in Kauffman field (arguably, one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball) he can make a nice swap over to the National League and find himself in the ballpark where he and the Royals were defeated, AT&T Park. Giants have a starter vacancy and the Giants can add another top name to their rotation. Shields would be a nice option. Prediction: 5 Years/$85 Million Deal

Trade for Jay Bruce: Jay Bruce had a bad 2014 season, as did the Cincinnati Reds team in general. Only bright spot of their season was development of speedster Billy Hamilton and NL Cy Young Candidate, Johnny Cueto. Bruce has been a guy who was improving each season and didn't show signs of slowing down. Bruce did not have any struggle, and that came to him this season. This is not a long term concern or even a concern for next year. The team relied on him and Todd Frazier to carry the run support in a hitter's ball park. Bruce still finished with 18 Home Runs, but we all know he is capable to finishing above that. Bruce's value is down a little which could make him an interesting get before he returns to the old Jay Bruce. Already having signed an extension, Bruce makes $10 million per year, which is half of what Pablo Sandoval is going to make with Boston. The Giants have been using a platoon in left field ever since Barry Bonds retired from the game. While the Giants have not had an everyday left fielder since Bonds, now is the time for the team to add more bats into their lineup with the absence of Pablo Sandoval, possibly Michael Morse, and free agents here in the next offseason. Bruce has great numbers at AT&T Park, and can provide the big stick for a Giants offense who generally lacks the long ball. Not sure what the Reds want in return as they are experiencing a to-be rebuilding effort. I think the Giants could offer Kyle Crick, Matt Duffy, and Jarrett Parker to acquire Jay Bruce. 

Trade for Mat Latos: The National League West is not unfamiliar territory for Mat Latos, who pitched for the San Diegos from 2009-2011. Latos had unfortunate luck of missing part of the season, and slowly regained form. Once fully healed, Latos showed flashes of his old self. Latos is entering a contract year in 2015, where he looks to perform to earn himself an extension or bids for free agency to receive more money. Latos is 27, and has a lot of baseball left. Latos is just now tasting glimpses of prime years, and a new home may be best for him. Reds look to be rebuilding and Latos has value attached to him which can aid in the rebuilding process. Giants are looking to fill a starter spot in the rotation when they failed to get Jon Lester. If the Giants elect to forgo signing a free agent for big money, they could look to trade for Latos where they have the option of extending him. Latos, who is a fly-ball pitcher, would benefit by being traded to San Francisco. The vast park should aid his high home runs given-up rate, and post good numbers. Giants are looking to continue their winning ways, and Latos can help an aging rotation and pitching staff stay young. Giants could offer Kyle Crick & Matt Duffy. Duffy would be a nice option to replace Zack Cozart who has been a disappointment for the Reds.

Trade for Cole Hamels: The Phillies have been a disappointment the last three seasons and they are a team full of bad contracts, except Cole Hamels. Cole Hamels may not seem like an ace because he plays for the Phillies, but what he possesses is top of the rotation stuff and a guy who should be averaging 16-17 Wins a season. Hamels signed a big extension with the Phillies, but only has 4 years/$96 Million left on his contract. For an ace, that is a very likable contract for a team to manage. If Cole Hamels was a free agent today, he would probably be looking for a large contract to approach Clayton Kershaw contract status. With a lack of run support and a weak bullpen, Hamels earned losses that weren't his fault. Giants pushed for Jon Lester and came up empty, maybe it is time to focus attention to another big time starter who can fit along the top of the rotation with Madison Bumgarner. Hamels would have to accept being second in the rotation, as Bumgarner has simply become the ace of the rotation and top 5 pitchers in baseball. Phillies are in full rebuild mode, and Hamels is going to require extraction of three good prospects. For the Giants, this season and next season they have a lot of free agents to address, and they may want to keep some guys in the farm. As the Giants are entering a "dynasty", they might need to go all out to maintain this dominance. Hamels I think is worth targeting, more than the Giants interest they had in Jon Lester. For the Giants to please the Phillies, I think Kyle Crick. Matt Duffy, Hector Sanchez, and Chris Heston would do it.

Trade for Jordan Zimmermann: The Nationals last season were the best team record-wise when it came to winning the National League regular season. When the playoffs came around, the Nationals fell a part, but Jordan Zimmermann did not. Of the star power the Nationals have, Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann are the ones who played consistently all year. Zimmermann is entering a contract year and has earned whatever extension or money he will receive in free agency. Zimmermann isn't much of a strike out pitcher, but his craft works to his advantage and helped contribute a big part to the Nationals season. Not sure how much the Nationals value Jordan Zimmermann, but he appears to be dangled out there for offers as he is looking to get paid. Zimmermann should be of interest across country for the San Francisco Giants. Giants are all about pitching and Righetti would love to have another big time starter in the rotation with Bumgarner and Cain. With Cain's uncertainty on his return from injury, the aging Tim Hudson, and the shaky Tim Lincecum,  pitching just became the Giants main priority. To acquire Zimmermann, the Giants could offer Kyle Crick & Ty Blach 

Trade for Evan Longoria & Ben Zobrist: The likelihood of acquiring both Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist in the same deal is far from likely, even though the Tampa Bay Rays have taken a hit this offseason. The Rays lost David Price last season. In this offseason, the Rays have lost manager Joe Maddon, bench coach Dave Martinez, Vice President Andrew Friedman, Starting Pitcher Jeremy Hellickson, and Relief Pitcher Joel Peralta. With uncertainty with their future in Tampa Bay, the Rays may be approaching a rebuild with new manager, Kevin Cash. Evan Longoria is the face of the Rays franchise, but if they rebuild, he doesn't need to be around for that; as the same goes for Ben Zobrist too. Attendance is already poor in Tampa Bay. It might be worth looking to trade Longoria and Zobrist separately, or possibly together. For a season looking to be cloudy despite having one of the best rotations in the American League East, Rays will be looking to acquire what they can in return for their two best players. Zobrist has eligibility for multiple positions (2B/SS/RF), and Longoria provides a solid glove and a power bat at the hot corner. Giants have openings at third base where Longoria fits perfectly and the middle of the batting order, but Zobrist is the only iffy player. If Zobrist can adapt to left field which he does not play regularly at any point of his career, it may be a learning experience. While it possesses a challenge to the trade, it is nothing I wouldn't put past Zobrist. Giants looked hard at Zobrist in 2014, but the Rays were wanting a lot in return at that point of the season; where the Giants were not positive how they wanted to approach the rest of 2014. For a hefty return, the Rays would most likely require Kyle Crick, Brandon Belt, Adam Duvall, and Matt Duffy, and Erik Cordier. Losing Belt would be a hit, but he soon will require to be paid, and holds up first base for when Buster Posey. Posey will need to play first full time at some point of his career. If the Giants called and made this offer, Rays might consider as a possible rebuild looms. 

Trade for Justin Upton & Chris Johnson: The Braves under-performed in 2014, which led to a very disappointing season. Braves now have lost Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden via trade to the St. Louis Cardinals and Tommy La Stella to the Chicago Cubs. While it is not a full rebuild, the Braves seems to be adding pieces to prepare for 2016 when they leave Turner Field, and open a new ballpark in Cobb County, Georgia. Justin Upton was acquired in a big trade between the D'Backs and Braves back in 2013 with a lot of prospects involved. With two seasons in Atlanta, Upton has lived up to expectation, but the team has fell short in production. Upton is entering his contract year, and Braves don't seem eager to sign him to an extension. Braves may be looking to deal Upton and receive a nice return, and let another team be financially responsible for him. Giants have holes at third base and left field, as left field would highlight a trade between the Braves and Giants. Back in 2011, according to Comcast Sportsnet Bay Area California, Upton was quoted saying "I hate going to SF. The ball travels like crap there." Alfonso Soriano is another player who refused to come play in San Francisco because he hated the weather in San Francisco. While this was 2011, money has its ways of talking sometimes, especially when you hit 29 Home Runs and 102 RBI's in 2014. Entering a contract year, Upton would be a great option and the Giants might entertain him to a nice extension if traded. Chris Johnson is just the icing on the cake, and a good ball player who plays hard. Above-average defender and solid contact hitter, Johnson is a safe option at third base and allows the Giants not having to turn to rookie Adam Duvall, who could be used in a deal to acquire both Upton and Johnson. Rumor has it that Upton and Johnson was a discussed in a trade to San Francisco a week ago, but talks died off. Upton and Johnson should be discussed again especially how the market has been going and how the trade market is starting to heat up. Before other teams reach out to the Braves, the Giants should consider shopping Kyle Crick. Matt Duffy, Adam Duvall, and Gary Brown. These players should be able to get the deal done, with the limited prospects the Giants have.

These are all assumptions and predictions I feel would help benefit the Giants to remain relevant and consistent for awhile. Three World Series Championships in five years is an incredible feat, but it may be time for the Giants to start spending to keep the dominance intact and remain consistent. Lester was a big miss, but there are plenty of valuable options still out there for the Giants to take advantage of and get involved. 




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